What Are Your Odds of Winning Mega Millions?
The odds of taking home the top Mega Millions lottery prize have changed, becoming slightly more favorable. In exchange for a higher priced ticket ($5), the odds for winning any prize have improved from 1 in 24 to 1 in 23.07, while the odds of winning the jackpots have decreased from 1 in 302,575,350 to 1 in 290,472,336.
This change makes the odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot slightly better than Powerball’s, where the odds are 1 in 292.2 million. If you’re learning how to play Mega Millions for the first time or just brushing up, it’s useful to understand these odds and how they work.
The more you know, the better, which is why we’ve put together this comprehensive Mega Millions odds guide.
Can Mega Millions Odds Change?
Mega Millions has fixed odds, meaning they don’t change from draw to draw, regardless of the number of tickets sold. Lottery odds are based on how many numbers you have to guess and the guess range, which are two factors that never change, no matter how big the Mega Millions jackpot is, or how many people are playing for it.
One element that can change draw to draw is the chance of a jackpot being split. This is because the more people that play, the higher the odds that there will be more than one winning ticket, meaning a higher chance of winnings being divided between players.
Another factor that can affect whether or not a jackpot is split is how popular the winning numbers are.
An interesting example of this happened in 2011 when 41,763 people all played the same numbers for a Mega Millions draw. Those numbers were 4 8 15 16 23 42. You might actually recognize those numbers; they were the numbers that the fictional character Hurley won the lottery with in the 2004 television show Lost. For that week, those were definitely the Mega Millions hot numbers!
Unlike Hurley, those Lost fans only matched four of the numbers so they all got their full secondary prize, which back in 2011 was $150. Still, it’s worth noting that had they actually won the jackpot it would have been split 41,763 different ways, and would have been worth a lot less than the $240 million on offer. In the actual draw, there were only two winning tickets for the jackpot.
| Prize Category | Match | Winning Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Prize | 5+1Mega Ball | 1:290,472,336 |
| 2 Prize | 5 | 12,629,232 |
| 3 Prize | 4+1Mega Ball | 1:893,761 |
| 4 Prize | 4 | 1:38,859 |
| 5 Prize | 3+1Mega Ball | 1:13,965 |
| 6 Prize | 3 | 1:607 |
| 7 Prize | 2+1Mega Ball | 1:665 |
| 8 Prize | 1+1 Mega Ball | 1:85 |
| 9 Prize | 0+1Mega Ball | 1:35 |
What Are The Odds of Winning Mega Millions Secondary Prizes?
These odds were updated as of April 2025, improving the odds of 6 of 9 prize tiers. As you can see, the odds of winning Mega Millions’ jackpot are 1:290,472,336.
Mega Millions’ second-placed prize is worth a very impressive $1 million, and can go up to as high as $10 million with the Multiplier. The odds for that second prize are drastically different from the jackpot, at 12,629,232.
Another interesting statistic is that the odds of winning any of the Mega Millions prizes in a draw are actually 1 in 23.07, which is slightly higher than Powerball’s 1 in 24.9. Non-jackpot prizes can also be increased with the built-in Mega Millions Multiplier.
Powerball vs Mega Millions Odds
The odds of winning the Mega Millions’ jackpot is 1:290,472,336, giving slightly kinder jackpot odds than that of the Powerball, which is 1:292,201,338.
You can see a comparison of Mega Millions odds, game elements and more here.
How to Play Mega Millions
To play Mega Millions, you must select five main numbers (from 1-70) and a Mega Ball (from 1-24) for each line. Choose your numbers manually, or have them randomly selected for you!
Once you’ve decided how many lines you wish to play, you simply need to confirm your order.
Draws take place every Tuesday and Friday at 11pm ET. Be sure to secure your tickets before the next draw!
